MORBID PROJECTION: Up to 30,000 active cases in NCR by September 30

The Department of Health (DOH) said yesterday that it projects some 18,000 to 30,000 active cases of COVID-19 by the end of September in the National Capital Region (NCR), even as stricter community lockdowns are to be adopted in the coming weeks.

 The dreadful numbers are initial projections of the FASSTER and Autumn, the data
 analytic groups of the Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Diseases (IATF), said DOH Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire, at a public briefing yesterday. July 31.

The groups “are the modelers that have been helping us in providing forecasts and they gave us forecasts using different scenarios,” said Vergeire.

“It was seen that there will be an increase of 18,000 to 30,000 even (if NCR) is under ECQ,” she said. Active cases pertain to the COVID-19 patients who have not recovered from the virus.

Based on the DOH Tracker, there were already 12,108 active cases in NCR as of July 30.

Vergeire said that the projections do not mean the hard lockdown will be useless.

“These lockdowns will help us prepare the system but it is not going to control the spread of Delta variant,” she said.

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